Officer Shortfalls Estimated at 34,000 and Rising

Dewey's Annual Report Manning 2008 produced in conjunction with Precious Associates Limited provides an industry-wide appraisal of the crisis hitting the maritime industry. New report includes assessment of Personnel Supply/Demand gap analysis 2008-2012 and in depth appraisal of leading crew supply regions.

Simply put, an owner or manager can recruit seafaring personnel from any STCW approved manning nation in the world. The practical application of course is quite different with a generally established manning pattern in place, especially for quality operated vessels where continuity of employment is important. However, in a time of manning shortage/crisis, there is a need to be aware of the global manning scene, so that well balanced decisions can be made regarding future manning plans.

Evaluating the current and prospective picture in respect of seafarer supply and demand is a key component of Manning 2008 and it draws upon the inaugural findings of the Dreary/PAL Global Manpower Model.

The Dreary/PAL Global Manpower Model has identified a current officer supply requirement of 498,800 in 2008. This represents a 23.8% increase in officer availability since 1990 and – a 7% increase from 2005. However, the model identifies that this still implies that there is a substantial officer shortfall and predicts that the picture could get worse between now and 2012.

Remuneration levels will therefore remain under pressure and further escalation in officer wage costs is an almost certainty. In addition to rising wages, it must be expected that in order to retain staff, employers will be forced to look at employment patterns, incentives and training as a way of retaining personnel.

In the manning sector, the last 18 months have seen a period of extraordinary wage increases – the like of which has never been experienced before in the history of shipping. The previously established position of, generally, annual increases with moderate wage hikes no longer applies. Currently, it is not unusual to have encountered two or three wage uplifts taking place within a twelve month period.

It is hard to recall a time when the seagoing manpower scene has been such a hot topic. There is a wages explosion – and it is not yet clear how soon and at what level this will work itself out. Retention is an issue – as owners and managers seem quite willing to 'poach' personnel – but this only adds to debate on topics such as who provides and pays for training. Perhaps what the industry should expect is that over the near term the lot of the seafarer is set to improve (and not just in pure remuneration terms). You can buy the full report online at: http://www.drewry.co.uk/publications/view_publication.php?id=325